Steel Raw Material Prices Diverge at Year-End: Policies, Supply and Demand Steer Market Trends

The global steel raw material market has witnessed distinct divergence as the year approaches its end. Domestically, the price of hot-rolled coil has gradually stabilized, supported by falling costs and expectations of production cuts. In the international market, however, steel prices remain high due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies. This gap between domestic and international markets has attracted widespread attention from enterprises across the industrial chain.

Regarding the domestic market, monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information shows that as of December 4, the price of the main contract for hot-rolled coil stood at 3,332 yuan per ton. Although it has dropped significantly from the annual high, signs of stabilization have emerged recently. "Coke prices on the cost side have started to decline, and coupled with concentrated maintenance and production cuts by steel mills, the supply-demand contradiction is gradually easing," noted analyst Li Huan. In 2025, hot-rolled coil enterprises remained profitable for most of the year, with an average annual profit of 49.06 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of over 300%. However, they briefly fell into losses in the fourth quarter due to supply-demand imbalances. Currently, the industry is returning to balance through production capacity adjustments.

Supportive signals at the policy level are equally clear. The "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Iron and Steel Industry (2025-2026)", jointly issued by five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, proposes to promote an average annual growth of about 4% in the industry's added value through measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and strengthening the supply of high-end products. Donghai Futures predicts that domestic crude steel output will decrease by 1.75% year-on-year in 2026, and supply contraction is expected to provide bottom support for steel prices. The operating range of rebar is projected to be 2,900-3,500 yuan per ton.

The international market presents a different scenario. Data indicates that the price of U.S. hot-rolled coil has risen by 35% since the start of 2025, reaching 900 U.S. dollars per ton. This increase stems from import contraction caused by U.S. tariff policies. As the world's largest net steel importer, 20% of its steel demand relies on imports, and tariff barriers have significantly restricted the inflow of low-cost steel, exacerbating domestic supply-demand contradictions. China Report Hall points out that the 7 million tons of new electric arc furnace steel production capacity in the U.S. will be gradually released, but the pattern of high steel prices will not fundamentally change in the short term.

For downstream enterprises, market divergence has brought new operational challenges. The person in charge of a domestic steel structure enterprise stated that they are responding to price fluctuations by locking in long-term raw material orders and optimizing product structure. Export-oriented enterprises, on the other hand, need to balance the price gap between domestic and international markets and rationally plan their purchasing and production schedules. The industry generally believes that steel raw material prices will continue the pattern of "stable with a solid foundation domestically and high volatility internationally" in 2026, with policy regulation and the dynamic balance between supply and demand serving as the core influencing factors.